Preemptive War 20.10.07

Ramadan is over, Eid Mubarak. Happy Eid to all of you, may God bring you happiness and joy, and bring positive changes in your life. May He bring peace to your hearts, and lessen the craziness that’s going on in the world.

Many people ask me about the threat of the war to break through in the region, mainly supporting the idea that Bush, reaching the end of his term, is going to make a last coup by striking Iran. While I support the regional developments of nuclear energy plants (Bahrain will invest in that sector), Iran needs it to sustain its growth and to give energy to his people, I do not copy the Islamic Republic of Nedjad aiming at entering the nuclear club for military purpose. Nejad has publically mentioned that he would like to eradicate Israel but I am part of the ones who believe that will never happen. It won't, not because the US might apply preemptive strikes, but rather because the public opinion in Iran is not supporting his Prime Minister in that crazy plan. Persian are looking for economic growth, for political reforms and to maintain peace. So apart from a Bush-lead initiative, I do not see Iran as a threat per se.

I rather believe that the main geopolitical risk comes now from Turkey. Strikes on Iran may not see me leaving the region, it will bring oil above $100 bbl and will change our lives here, for sure. Turkey, in its attempts to remove the threat of terrorist acts due to the wish for independence from the activists from Kurdistan, may indeed invade Northern Iraq, starting a chain reaction like the ones that triggered the 2 world wars. A fragmented Iraq is not a solution. An empowered Russia, re-arming herself and showing some signs of her past military glory, the US not being in adequation with the EU, and some different opinions within the EU, this is for me the main risk that may affect our lives.

May God protect us from this, but we know what mens are capable of.

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